North Korea Assessment (Sept 2017) [click here]
Update: I missed the call on this one. However, I leave it here for review.
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
I predict that prior to the 2020 elections the United States and China will conclude negotiations for China to oversee reunification of the Korean Peninsula and implement a more capitalist economic / political model in North Korea. In return, the United States will acquire agreements to: 1) dismantle or abandon most-but-not-all Chinese man-made islands in the South China Sea; 2) agree to recognize some claims on certain gas / petroleum reserves by ASEAN nations, especially those currently under litigation in International courts; and 3) agree on economic trade that benefits both the US and China.
Very interesting implications for society at large. When this gets implemented into a holodeck architecture I wonder…. will the decreasing abilities of our youth to effectively interact with each other on a physical basis be exacerbated? What implications are there for social interaction, and our ability to interact with those cultures which are not as advanced technically? Will the increased ability to “tune in and drop out” open us up to predation by enemies who are focused on the “here and now”?
From a positive perspective, however, I can imagine that there could be meaningful improvements in the lives of those who are incapable of social interaction, either due to mental defects or loss of mobility. As one of the older members of society, I can foresee that there might be tremendous benefits for my generation as it ages.
Time to take the focus off the train wrecks that are the IRS, Benghazi, and ObamaCare. Let’s turn our attention to the international community.
From Nightwatch , some interesting information on India and Pakistan. While both are theoretically our allies, India is one of the top 5 cyber Intelligence gathering countries in the world (targeting our technology… “free is GOOD”), and Pakistan is somewhat of a client State for China.. who, despite propping up our economy by buying our dollars is not a friend.
Here’s last Friday’s intelligence briefing:
Comment: The Indians are perplexed by Pakistan’s behavior. India political analysts cannot decide whether Sharif is incompetent, deliberately deceptive or simply lacks the ability to control Pakistan’s security forces who are executing national security policy independent of the government.
The increased attacks are increasing the electoral prospects of Indian nationalist parties, such as the BJP. The next general elections must be held before 31 May 2014. Political leaders in India and Pakistan do not want a war, but interest groups on both sides appear to find political advantage in increased tension and a deterioration of border security, which is occurring.