North Korea

North Korea Assessment (Sept 2017)

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

I predict that prior to the 2020 elections the United States and China will conclude negotiations for China to oversee reunification of the Korean Peninsula and implement a more capitalist economic / political model in North Korea.  In return, the United States will acquire agreements to: 1) dismantle or abandon most-but-not-all Chinese man-made islands in the South China Sea; 2) agree to recognize some claims on certain gas / petroleum reserves by ASEAN nations, especially those currently under litigation in International courts; and 3) agree on economic trade that benefits both the US and China.

A Virtual World

Very interesting implications for society at large.  When this gets implemented into a holodeck architecture I wonder….  will the decreasing abilities of our youth to effectively interact with each other on a physical basis be exacerbated?  What implications are there for social interaction, and our ability to interact with those cultures which are not as advanced technically?  Will the increased ability to “tune in and drop out” open us up to predation by enemies who are focused on the “here and now”?

From a positive perspective, however, I can imagine that there could be meaningful improvements in the lives of those who are incapable of social interaction, either due to mental defects or loss of mobility.  As one of the older members of society, I can foresee that there might be tremendous benefits for my generation as it ages.

 

 

The fall of Falluja, or “We told you so”

Source

terrorists

No, we shouldn’t put boots back on the ground in Iraq.

However, it would be wise to note that the problems in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Egypt, China, and Lebanon are what you get when you “Hope” for “Change”, and all you have to back it up are Candied Rainbows and Unicorn Tears.

It’s not the Left isn’t correct to cut back on the Right’s desire to play World Policeman, it’s just that their utopian dreams for society are woefully unprepared for the realities of an existence dominated by the urge for survival and the existence of Evil. “Reality” is the bullet that strikes you in the chest when you think that the mugger will leave you alone after taking your wallet.

 

US speak with forked tongue?

Source (click here)

Unfortunately, the Obama administration is directly responsible for fueling anti-American sentiment, not simply because of its record of hostilities that include covert cyber-warfare and presidential authorizations that have added weight to “crippling sanctions” on Iran, but also due to the contradictory and incoherent approach of US officials; officials who include Wendy Sherman.

The top US negotiator, Sherman billed the last Geneva round as “serious and substantive” and, yet, in the same breath insulted the Iranian national character with her undiplomatic statement that deception is part of Iranians’ DNA.

I like her!

On Urban Guerillas

Source

Sunday, October 27, 2013
Review – Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla
Posted by Chris Rawley

David Kilcullen’s new book, Out of the Mountains, is based on the premise that demographic trends and the democratization of technology will force many, if not most, future wars into highly connected, densely populated, littoral areas. And whether or not Western militaries currently have any intention of fighting in those sorts of conflicts, history demonstrates we will. Efforts that begin as humanitarian assistance or noncombatant evacuation may overlap areas of complex urban conflict. Even during state-on-state wars, irregular operations in urban terrain will feature prominently. These conflicts, regardless of the form they take, will share several characteristics.

Through a series of vignettes that include Somalia, the Mumbai attacks, and the Arab Awakening, the author shows how urban-littoralized battles are occurring in increasing frequency and involve not just local, but international actors. Whereas I provided a Reader’s Digest version of the new phenomenon of networked urban “flash” insurgencies in UW 2.0, Kilcullen lays out in significant detail how soccer hooligans, social media, and online activists became the action arms in the revolutions that rapidly toppled Arab governments earlier in the decade, and how these same types of actors will impact future urban conflict.

Rather than a static terrain feature, Kilcullen sees urban areas as organisms, with people, goods, money, etc. flowing through that system at various rates similar to the way a metabolism regulates the flows of nutrients through a living being. In keeping with the biological analogy, terms such as infestation and parasite illustrate how transnational criminal networks or occupying militaries might respectively interact with and change a city. Examination of this same model from the perspective of licit and illicit maritime traffic flowing through ports and densely populated coastal regions might be a useful research subject.

There is value in this book for a range of audiences; urban planners, diplomats, NGOs involved in conflict resolution, Marines, and special operators can all take away something from Kilcullen’s field research and analysis. For naval observers, the appendix, in which the author discusses some capabilities required by military forces operating in and around networked urban environments, might be the most interesting part of the book. Kilcullen questions some of the assumptions behind current Naval/Marine Corps doctrine including the ability to bypass urban areas with vertical lift and the validity of sea-basing, although he notes that expeditionary logistics are as important as ever.
He stresses the need for new tactical organizational constructs and that properly selected, trained, and trusted junior officers and NCOs will be paramount in these conflicts. “In a coastal urban setting, the complexity of the environment will demand this level of trust right from the outset.”

It’s a dangerous world out there; let’s not assume we’re living in a vacuum

Time to take the focus off the train wrecks that are the IRS, Benghazi, and ObamaCare. Let’s turn our attention to the international community.

From Nightwatch , some interesting information on India and Pakistan. While both are theoretically our allies, India is one of the top 5 cyber Intelligence gathering countries in the world (targeting our technology… “free is GOOD”), and Pakistan is somewhat of a client State for China.. who, despite propping up our economy by buying our dollars is not a friend.

Here’s last Friday’s intelligence briefing:

Key point:

Comment: The Indians are perplexed by Pakistan’s behavior. India political analysts cannot decide whether Sharif is incompetent, deliberately deceptive or simply lacks the ability to control Pakistan’s security forces who are executing national security policy independent of the government.

The increased attacks are increasing the electoral prospects of Indian nationalist parties, such as the BJP. The next general elections must be held before 31 May 2014. Political leaders in India and Pakistan do not want a war, but interest groups on both sides appear to find political advantage in increased tension and a deterioration of border security, which is occurring.